Pitt takes on Utah in season opener
NCAA Football Betting Lines
09/01/2010 - Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The premiere matchup during the first night of the 2010 college football season has the Utah Utes entertaining the 15th-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers in a non-conference showdown at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City.
"It's one of those games where one turnover might mean the difference in the game, a bad decision in the kicking game might mean the decision of the game or where a broken coverage for a touchdown might make the decision of the game," Pittsburgh head coach Dave Wannstedt noted during his weekly news conference. "There's less room for error when you're playing a very good football team at home as compared to an opponent that you can maybe make a mistake, and you're strong enough in your talent to overcome."
Clearly the pressure is on both teams to perform well coming out of the gate and live up to their lofty expectations. Last season, the Panthers posted an impressive 10-3 mark with a 5-2 record versus the rest of the Big East Conference, but in the final games of the regular season they simply couldn't get over the hump. A loss to NC State early in the 2009 campaign may have kept Pitt out of the national title picture, but clearly the setbacks to West Virginia (19-16) and versus Cincinnati (45-44) made sure of that. As a result, the Panthers were sent to the Meineke Car Care Bowl where they barely made it by North Carolina in a 19-17 final.
As for the Utes, while they are not currently ranked in the AP's Top-25, the squad is clearly on the radar having won 17 consecutive home games to rank among the best in that department as the 2010 season gets underway. Head coach Kyle Whittingham, who picked up his first win with the program back in 2005 when he and the Utes posted a 35-7 win in the Fiesta Bowl against this same Pittsburgh team in their first-ever meeting. That win was one of nine straight for the Utes in the postseason, the longest current streak in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
Last year, ranked 23rd in the nation heading into extra play, the Utes logged a 37-27 win over California in the Poinsettia Bowl, and even though the team lost two of its last four games on the schedule, it still jumped to 18th in the final polls. The squad finished the season 10-3 and was 6-2 against the rest of the Mountain West Conference after losing to TCU (55-28) and BYU (26-23 OT) both on the road.
The importance of this season-opening game has not been lost on coach Whittingham and he is ready to get the action started.
"Pittsburgh's very good. They have a lot of weapons. There are a lot of positives for a team that was picked to win the Big East. Our guys are ready. They are having great practices. The work ethic is good, the focus is good."
Opening on the road for the first time since 1993, the Panthers are led on offense by sophomore running back Dion Lewis and quarterback Tino Sunseri. Lewis exploded onto the scene for Pittsburgh with a total of 10 100-yard rushing games and eight straight to close out 2009 as he averaged 138.4 ypg on the ground to not only rank first in the league but also third in the nation at such a young age. With an average of 5.5 yards per attempt and a total of 17 touchdowns, Lewis showed the sort of flashes that made Tony Dorsett a legend at Pittsburgh.
However, as great as Lewis might be, having a new quarterback directing the offense might hurt his production if opposing defenses are not sold on Sunseri. The offensive line is stocked with juniors and seniors and that should help keep Sunseri upright as well as open the necessary holes for Lewis to run through.
"Tino is very intelligent," coach Wannstedt has said of his new starting signal-caller. "He understands what we're trying to do as an offense. He has a strong enough arm to make all the throws that we ask our quarterbacks to make. We're not going into a game saying that we can't call this play or that play because the quarterback can't get the throw there accurately. He can make all the throws."
The other skill positions on offense for the Panthers have Mike Shanahan at split end and Mike Cruz at tight end, both of whom are sophomores, while the flanker spot is occupied by Jon Baldwin who led the team last season with 57 catches for 1,111 yards and eight touchdowns.
Except for a handful of games last season, the defense for the Panthers was right on top of the action. The squad was 17th in the nation in stopping the run with just 106.3 ypg allowed and was tops in sacks with 3.6 per outing. Tackles for loss was another highlight for the group, registering more than seven and a half per game to rank third in the conference and ninth in the country. The team had five guys with at least five sacks each, while Greg Romeus came up with a team-best eight sacks and Mick Williams a team-high 17.0 TFLs.
Romeus is a terrifying presence, standing 6-6 and carrying his 270-pound frame around with ease. The senior was one of two players to start every game along the offensive line at the same position last year, so getting into a groove was no problem.
Coach Wannstedt believes linebacker might be the deepest position on the defense, with guys like Tristan Roberts, Greg Williams and Dan Mason all able to control the action in the middle of the field, while both Roberts and Williams can also leak out to the edges as well.
"We feel we have two very good backs in Matt Asiata and Eddie Wide," coach Whittingham says of Utah's primary ball carriers heading into this season. "We have two starters and anticipate equal carries, but if one gets the hot hand, we will ride that hot hand, which is natural. If we rush 35-40 times in the game, I expect they will each get 18-20 carries. There is no target number, we just want to keep them fresh and rotate."
Wide had some strong plays for the Utes last year, but his consistency wasn't where it could have been. He put together six straight 100-yard rushing games, but there was also the mere 37 yards on 21 carries against California at the end. Obviously quarterback Jordan Wynn picked up the slack in the bowl game, throwing for a career-best 338 yards and three touchdowns and the hope is that the Poinsettia Bowl MVP will be doling out such efforts on a regular basis this season now that he knows the offense is firmly under his command.
Asiata, who is a threat to both break off a big run and take direct snaps from center, is coming off a knee injury that put him on the sidelines for the final nine games of 2009, so his return will provide a huge boost to the offense. If Asiata is able to rebound in solid fashion, perhaps having only one returning starter at the receiver position (senior Jereme Brooks) will not be such a bad thing.
Back in 2007 the Utes had the top defense in the nation, based on pass efficiency, but the last two years the group has slipped a bit and that might be cause for concern.
"We have two safeties who have never started a D-I game," says coach Whittingham. "Justin Taplin-Ross was playing behind Robert Johnson, and true freshman Brian Blechen is playing opposite him. We will be particularly interested to see how Brian reacts. We expect him to play well but you never know about the transition."
With those sort of concerns coming in the secondary, it will be crucial for the Utah linebacking crew to handle the business in front of it this week, especially when they encounter Lewis breaking through the first line of defense.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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